Bayesian updating of solar panel fragility curves and implications of higher panel strength for solar generation resilience

Solar generation can become a major and global source of clean energy by 2050. Nevertheless, few studies have assessed its resilience to extreme events, none used empirical data characterize the fragility solar panels. This paper develops functions for rooftop ground-mounted panels calibrated with panel structural performance in Caribbean Hurricanes Irma Maria 2017 Hurricane Dorian 2019. After estimating hurricane wind fields, we follow Bayesian approach estimate based on observations supplemented existing numerical vulnerability. Next, apply developed assess failure rates due hazards Miami-Dade, Florida, highlighting that perform below code requirements, especially We also illustrate strength increases improve panels' effectively. However, factor two still cannot meet reliability stated code.